Politics for DilettantesKawaii -- Wednesday, October 08, 2003 -- 10:08:43 PM
Apathetic? Uninformed? Don't even vote? Have your bread and want your circus?This thread is tagged: politics, republicans, democrats
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0bama golf rounds as President
2012 (re-election year) 19 --> 12 for first 10 months, 7 in last two after winning re-election
2013 39 (thus far)
Each round takes about five hours.
Total rounds of golf played by George W. Bush in eight years: 29.
BTW, 0blabla has got a really poor golf swing.
Almost Charles Barkley-like in its cringe-worthiness.
If we had a rational media in this country, this administration would have been long since laughed out of office.
The idiot looks like the sissified twat-faced spawn of Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes.
Fucking four-eyed freak.
No doubt a lot of liberals don't want her to be the nominee.
I'd be more surprised if a progressive outlet ran a picture like that a week before a general election dogfight.
and its counterpart,
The Rasmussen Report polling operation seems to have become dilettantish. Note that this poll is a three-day sample, meaning 1/3 of each poll drops off each day to be replaced by a new sample. Hence, 2/3 of the poll is the same day-to-day, the idea being that such sampling mutes swings and sampling noise.
How, then, to explain the poll's erratic performance this year for presidential approval? Whereas the RCP average of polls for the past four weeks has hovered between -11.2 and -8.0, Rasmussen has swung from +4 to -11.
It is the only poll in the RCP history to show Obama with a positive approval since July of last year!
In one day two days ago it went from -11 to -1. Consider the math required to achieve that with a methodology of retaining 1,000 out of 1,500 respondents in the polling sample. In a sample of 1,500, to have -11 approval:
To have only -1 approval:
In other words, 75 people had to change from disapproval to approval. But that's 75 people out of only 500! Two thirds of the sample remained the same. So if for mathematical simplicity we assume the previous 3 days of samples were relatively even--and we can because the poll only fluctuated by 1 point for the 3 days previous--then the sample that dropped off looked approximately like this:
And the sample that replaced it would have to look like this:
295 approve (+75)
200 disapprove (-75)
Meaning the Rasmussen one-day sample had to show an Obama job approval of +19. If for three previous days polling showed -11, followed by a sample with +19 without any news to justify the swing, a legitimate pollster would have to question the sample.
I've been watching these swings as well. They really don't make sense at all. Yesterday the poll was 45 approve, 55 disapprove. Today it's 50 approve and 49 disapprove.
Rasmussen has been on a yo-yo. Something's up with their data collection. Either they've been switching regions of the country, that is, polling only in one area at a time, or their sampling is approaching a random walk.
They used to do only phone robocalls, but after they performed so poorly in the last election they decided to "supplement" those with an online sample. Evidently, they haven't worked out the new methodology.
As I recall, Scott Rasmussen also left.